When Manchester United host Tottenham this weekend, all eyes will be on two of the world’s elite goalkeepers: David de Gea and Hugo Lloris. But beyond the glamour of their reputations, who’s genuinely outperforming the competition this season? Six6s dives deep into the Opta statistics to reveal the Premier League’s most reliable shot-stoppers—and the surprises lurking beneath the surface.
The Science Behind Goalkeeper Performance
Modern football analytics have revolutionized how we assess goalkeepers. Opta’s advanced metrics assign a “goal probability” to every shot based on factors like angle, distance, and defensive pressure. This “Expected Goals Conceded” (xGC) model reveals whether a keeper is overperforming (saving more than expected) or underperforming (letting in soft goals).
For instance, if a shot has a 0.3 xG rating, it means a keeper should save it 70% of the time. By comparing xGC to actual goals conceded, we uncover who’s defying the odds—and who’s falling short.
The Overachievers: Goalkeepers Defying Expectations
Tom Heaton (Burnley)
The Burnley captain has been a revelation, preventing 5.06 goals more than Opta’s model predicts. With a 77.1% save rate, Heaton’s reflexes have kept Burnley competitive despite their defensive struggles.
Lee Grant (Stoke City)
Stoke’s backup-turned-hero has outperformed even Lloris and De Gea, conceding just 5 goals against an xGC of 8.19. His standout display at Old Trafford earlier this season was no fluke.
Petr Cech (Arsenal)
The veteran’s consistency shines again: 14 goals conceded vs. 16.41 xGC. His positioning and command of the box remain elite, proving age is just a number.
Hugo Lloris (Tottenham)
While not topping the charts, Lloris edges De Gea with 1.04 goals prevented. His sweeping ability and quick distribution are key to Spurs’ high defensive line.
The Underperformers: Surprising Struggles
David de Gea (Manchester United)
Shockingly, De Gea has conceded 1.08 more goals than expected. While he’s made spectacular saves, uncharacteristic errors (like Chelsea’s Cahill strike) have cost United points.
David Marshall (Hull City)
The worst performer by far: 7.51 goals worse than xGC. Hull’s defensive chaos hasn’t helped, but Marshall’s shaky form exacerbates their woes.
Thibaut Courtois (Chelsea)
Even Chelsea’s title charge hasn’t masked Courtois’ dip: -2.07 goals prevented. His aerial dominance remains, but low saves have been an issue.
Key Takeaways for the Manchester United vs Tottenham Clash
- Lloris’ Edge: Tottenham’s captain has been marginally better statistically, but De Gea’s big-game pedigree can’t be ignored.
- Burnley’s Unsung Hero: Tom Heaton’s form warrants England consideration—his saves per game (4.1) lead the league.
- The xG Factor: Teams creating high-xG chances (like Spurs) will test keepers more severely. United’s defensive structure must improve to protect De Gea.
Final Verdict
While De Gea and Lloris dominate headlines, the data reveals underrated stars like Heaton and Grant deserve equal praise. For Six6s readers, this weekend’s clash isn’t just about star power—it’s a battle of who can outsmart the xG model.
Who do you think is the Premier League’s best goalkeeper this season? Share your thoughts below and follow Six6s for more in-depth analysis!
